Regulation
CFTC's new swap definitions arrive as Kalshi asks two appeals courts to reconsider
The agency says sports event contracts are swaps and sportsbook bets are not. Lawyers doubt that alone will settle Kalshi's fight with the states.
Polymarket vs Kalshi · live
Prediction market odds, compared and explained
PredictReport tracks the same markets on Polymarket and Kalshi side by side, flags arbitrage when their prices disagree, and reviews every platform worth trading on — so you know what a price means, what a trade costs and where to place it.
Live odds
Polymarket vs Kalshi, side by side
Newsroom
Prediction market news
Business
Google now blocks prediction market ads in five states after adding Connecticut
Kalshi and other event-contract platforms can't target Google ads at Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York or Ohio residents.
Markets
Most Americans oppose betting on elections, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
Sixty percent of US adults oppose election betting, with majorities in both parties, weeks before the midterms put election contracts to the test.
Regulation
Underdog sues Tennessee after state threatens its fantasy sports license
Underdog is the latest exchange to challenge a state ban on sports event contracts, weeks after the Sixth Circuit sided with Tennessee against Kalshi.
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The essential guides
How prediction markets workContracts, prices and settlement from first principles.Polymarket vs KalshiThe two biggest venues compared on fees, markets and regulation.Best prediction market appsEvery platform ranked for US and international traders.Are prediction markets legal?The federal framework, the state fights and what they mean for you.Arbitrage between venuesLock in a spread when Polymarket and Kalshi disagree, after fees.Taxes on winningsThe three treatments in use while the IRS has published no guidance.
Analysis
Latest from the blog
How Prediction Markets Settle Election Night 2026
How Kalshi and Polymarket settle the 2026 midterms: media calls vs the Speaker vote, recounts, runoffs, independents, current House and Senate odds and tips.
Miriam Velde
Supreme Court and Prediction Markets: The Case Explained
The Supreme Court prediction markets case explained: New Jersey's petition against Kalshi, the circuit split, the timeline and what a ruling would change.
Miriam Velde
Kalshi IPO: Valuation, Timing and How to Invest
Kalshi IPO explained: what the company has said about going public, its climb from a $2 billion to a $40 billion valuation, likely timing and how to get exposure.
Alex Copert
FOMC Meeting Schedule 2027 and Fed Rate Odds
The FOMC meeting schedule for 2027, which meetings bring new projections, and how Kalshi and Polymarket price Fed rate decisions after the 2026 hike.
Tomas Orgato
TIME Person of the Year 2026 Odds: Mamdani Leads
TIME Person of the Year 2026 odds on Polymarket and Kalshi: Zohran Mamdani leads Mark Carney and Pope Leo XIV. How the markets settle and what history says.
Tomas Orgato
AI Prediction Markets: Trading OpenAI, Anthropic and Google
AI prediction markets explained: trading model releases, leaderboards and AI IPOs like Anthropic's on Kalshi and Polymarket, and why insider trading is the big risk.
Alex Copert
Prediction Market Stocks: How to Invest in the Boom
Prediction market stocks explained: the listed companies that earn from event contracts, from Robinhood and ICE to DraftKings, and the risks behind the boom.
Alex Copert
Polymarket Token and Airdrop: What's Actually Confirmed
Polymarket token and airdrop: what Polymarket has confirmed, what it hasn't, how eligibility might work, US restrictions, and how to avoid fake airdrop scams.
Alex Copert
Platform reviews
Every platform, reviewed
ReviewKalshi Review 2026: The Best Prediction Market for US Traders?
Kalshi review 2026: the CFTC-regulated prediction market for US traders. Fees, markets, deposits, the 4% APY on idle cash, and how it compares with Polymarket.
Alex Copert
ReviewPolymarket Review 2026: The Biggest Prediction Market?
Polymarket review 2026: how the world's biggest prediction market works, what it costs, which markets it lists, and how it compares with Kalshi.
Alex Copert
ReviewPredict.fun Review 2026: BNB Chain's Prediction Market
Predict.fun review 2026: the BNB Chain prediction market that pays yield on open positions. Fees, markets, backers, US restrictions and our 3.3/5 verdict.
Alex Copert
ReviewNovig Review 2026: Zero-Fee Sports Prediction Market
Novig review 2026: CFTC-regulated sports prediction market with zero commission, plus the Sydney Sweeney ad campaign and what it says about the platform.
Alex Copert
ReviewSports.com Review 2026: Sports-First Prediction Market
Sports.com review 2026: fees, regulation, markets, and how this sports-first prediction market stacks up against Kalshi and Polymarket.
Alex Copert
ReviewPascal Review 2026: New Prediction Market Platform
Pascal review covers fees, regulation, markets, and how this newer prediction market platform stacks up against Polymarket and Kalshi in 2026.
Alex Copert
ReviewFanDuel Predicts Review: Legit Prediction Market?
FanDuel Predicts review: fees, markets, regulation, and how it stacks up against Kalshi and Polymarket. Is FanDuel's event contracts product legit in 2026?
Alex Copert
ReviewManifold Markets Review 2026: Is the Play Money Legit?
Our Manifold Markets review covers how the play-money prediction market works, its markets, fees, and how it compares to Polymarket and Kalshi.
Alex Copert
Free tools
Calculators for every trade
Market feesWork out what Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig actually charge on a trade, and what you keep if it lands.Vig & no-vigFind the margin baked into any two-sided market, and what the prices would be without it.Expected valueCheck whether a contract is worth buying at its current price, given what you think the real odds are.Odds converterConvert between prediction market cents, implied probability, American odds and decimal odds.ParlayCombine multiple contracts into one payout and see the real chance of every leg landing.Net profitSee what actually reaches your account once platform fees and tax come out of a winning year.
What are prediction markets?
A prediction market lets you trade on the outcome of a real event: an election, a Federal Reserve decision, a championship. Each contract pays $1 if the event happens and nothing if it does not, so its price in cents reads as a probability. A contract at 62¢ says the market gives the outcome a 62% chance.
Because traders put money behind their views, prices move as soon as information arrives, and across large samples they have been well calibrated. The two largest venues are Polymarket, which settles in USDC, and Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange that settles in dollars. Start with how prediction markets work, or read the evidence on how accurate they are.
How PredictReport works
Every ten minutes we pull prices for the same markets from Polymarket and Kalshi, match the outcomes by name and show where the two venues disagree. When a gap is wide enough to lock in a profit after both venues' fees, the arbitrage scanner flags it with the return, the annualised yield and the prices to trade.
Around that data sit reviews of every platform worth trading on, guides to fees, taxes and regulation, and odds coverage for the markets people follow most. Meet the editors who write them on our authors page. Some links are affiliate links, and we label them.
FAQ
Common questions
What is a prediction market?
A market where you trade contracts on the outcome of a real event. Each contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not, so its price in cents is the market's probability. Our guide to prediction market odds shows how to read one.
Is Polymarket or Kalshi better?
It depends on where you are and how you trade. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, settles in dollars and pays interest on idle cash; Polymarket has the deepest order books and the widest range of markets. The full Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison goes category by category.
Are prediction markets legal in the US?
Kalshi is a CFTC-designated contract market, and Polymarket serves US traders through a CFTC-licensed exchange. Several states contest sports contracts, so availability varies — see our legal guide.
How often are the odds on PredictReport updated?
Every ten minutes. Prices come from Polymarket's and Kalshi's public market data, and the arbitrage scanner recalculates every opportunity on each refresh.
How does PredictReport make money?
Through affiliate links: if you open an account through one of our links, we may earn a commission. It costs you nothing, and sign-up offers are labelled as ads — the full list is on our offers page.